We’ve launched something new…
This is FINK Signal.
Our brand new weekly research drop.
We’ve fought HARD on how best we can create research that you will NEED rather than just something that’s nice to have.
We’ve been doing research for years but more recently have put it on a backburner publicly…
Why?
Because we wanted to make the Academy a success first, and that it is.
Now we can get back to our bread and butter - institutional research for the individual investor.
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All this information is how we think about the market week to week and we are very much telling you WHAT to focus on here.
It will save you time, headache and give you clarity in your own research process in this funny old world of markets…
The Big Read
The Big Momentum Pivot™️ has been the story of the week - still.
Starting in Korea, it has shaped the headlines of the past 4 weeks (and has made for a very strange, boring and less profitable market.
Some data…
Forced liquidations totaled ~2.3 trillion won from May through mid-July 14 (roughly May 707.7B + June 1.12T + early July 473.6B).
July 1–10: 425.8 billion won (~$285–307 million) in forced sales tied to unpaid brokerage/consignment balances.
July 1–13: reports of ~451.9 billion won in actual forced sales from unsettled trades.
Estimated leveraged trading losses for retail investors: ~2.15 trillion won (~$1.45 billion) over roughly the prior month.
The leveraged trading part is super interesting to us.
Koreans had been seriously getting bulled up on SK Hynix and Samsung (which by the way, make up over 50% of the whole of the KOSPI) which is a double edged sword.
Yes, returns are amplified on the upside, but on the downside, losses are also amplified.
But the worse thing about the Korea situation is that these insane people were leveraging their leverage…
They were borrowing money to buy leveraged ETFs!
One trader (read gambler) used his entire student loan to buy leveraged ETFs…
We like the balls, but we don’t like the lack of foresight on risk management.
The effect of this has shifted across the world.
SoberLook has a great chart to see this.
Battered.
But where there is batterment, there is opportunity.
See there’s this thing in markets called dispersion.
It’s just the spread between the winners and the losers, how far the hot stocks are running away from everything else.
When that gap gets stupid wide, pure momentum strategies print money.
Buy the things that are already going parabolic, short the ones that aren’t.
Simple.
April and May of this year delivered some of the highest cross-sectional dispersion readings since the actual dot-com peak.
The stocks doing the heavy lifting were exactly the ones you’d expect… high-beta, high-momentum AI and semiconductor names, with a heavy Korean and Taiwanese flavour.
That is the fuel that sent the MSCI Momentum indices screaming higher relative to the market on SoberLook’s chart, the steep upward leg you can see starting around May.
The problem with extreme dispersion is that it also means the trade is crowded as hell.
Once the leadership breaks, the mean-reversion is violent.
The same names that were dragging the entire momentum factor higher suddenly become the ones dragging it lower.
You get the classic momentum crash where the relative performance lines on that chart don’t gently roll over, they fall off a cliff.
EM got hit the hardest because Korea (and Taiwan) were the purest, most leveraged expression of the whole thing.
So the Big Momentum Pivot isn’t some random rotation.
It’s the unwind of a period of historically elevated dispersion.
The forced selling in Seoul was just the most extreme, retail-levered version of the same process that is now washing through global momentum books.
Battered, yes.
But that is exactly when the opportunity shows up.
Extreme dispersion doesn’t stay extreme forever.
When the previous winners finally stop winning and the spread compresses, the next leg usually belongs to whatever was left behind.
The only question is whether you’re still staring at the wreckage of the last trade, or already looking for the new one.
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