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Budget 2026 |
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The Budget | OBR outlook, 28 Oct 2026
The Budget's fastest-growing bill has no plan.
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My post on the OBR numbers went a bit mad today. 34,000 impressions. Clearly I'm not the only one fuming. |
Quick recap. Tax hits a record 37.9% of GDP by 2027-28, past the old high of 37.2%. Then it climbs every single year to 38.6% by 2031-32. Thanks to frozen thresholds, 1.8 times the national minimum wage now makes you a higher rate taxpayer. |
Borrowing's £133bn this year. In March they said £115bn. Debt interest was £39bn in 2019-20. Last year it was £109bn and it'll be £160bn by 2031-32. That's money that buys nothing at all. |
Healey's headroom is down to £14.5bn from £21.7bn at the last Budget. Keep the fuel duty freeze going and it's £10.2bn. The OBR gives him a 56% chance of meeting his own fiscal rule. His own rule. |
Debt peaks at 97.3% of GDP and it's still 95.6% in 2031-32. Inflation's 3.4% when March said 2%. There's zero real pay growth in 2027. Living standards in 2030-31 are just 2% above pre-pandemic. But don't worry, everyone gets £100 off their council tax. |
Now the bit that really pissed me off. |
There's no plan on disability and health benefits. None. The Timms Review of PIP isn't finished, so there was nothing in the Budget for the OBR to cost. They say so themselves in paragraph 3.39. |
This is the fastest-growing bill in the country. Health and disability benefit spending goes from £86bn this year to £120bn by 2031-32. That's up 40%. The disability caseload went from 4.7 million to 6.9 million between 2019-20 and 2025-26. The incapacity caseload went from 2.5 million to 3.7 million. |
| | If caseloads keep growing at post-pandemic rates, the OBR reckons spending in 2031-32 would be about £25bn higher than forecast. That's more than the whole £14.5bn headroom. The welfare cap's already on course to be broken by £3bn. |
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I'm not having a go at disabled people. People who need support should get it. I'm having a go at a government that's looking at the fastest-growing bill in the country and deciding to wait for a review. Waiting for a review isn't a plan and the Chancellor bloody knows it. |
When the government hasn't got a plan, you need your own. |
That's what FINK OS is. It's the process for running your own money, so you're not sat around waiting for Westminster to sort it out. One payment and you've got lifetime access. |
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FINK OS · FINK20 ends midnight tonight
It's £1,940. The code FINK20 takes £388 off, so you pay £1,552. FINK20 ends tonight at midnight UK time. No extensions. And next week the price goes up by £100 to £2,040.
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If you want a proper look first, it's all here: pages.fink.money/finkos |
Speak soon, David |
P.S. FINK20 ends at midnight tonight, UK time. After that it's £1,940 and next week it's £2,040. Here's the link with the code already applied. |
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@Fink_Money | fink.money
Figures from the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook, 28 Oct 2026. Education, not financial advice. Capital at risk.
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